Predicting a presidential race a year out is tough. (You can check out how we did in 2023 here.) - Bryan Walsh The United States Donald Trump will return to the White House (55 percent) (If we were, we would say 100 percent.) Rather, it means that if we made five predictions or 10 predictions, we’d expect four or nine of them to come true, respectively.Īnd as we have every year, we’ll be keeping track of how we do in 2024 and letting you know our performance. Pay attention to the probabilities! 80 percent, or even 90 percent, does not mean we are certain an event will definitely happen. In keeping with the best practices of forecasters, we attach probabilities to each of our predictions. Will Donald Trump return to the White House? Will OpenAI release ChatGPT-5? Will antibiotic sales for farmed animals increase? Will inflation continue to moderate? Will Oppenheimer win Best Picture? (It would have Bohr’s vote, if he were a member of the Academy and if he were alive.)īut we don’t just make blind predictions.
Nonetheless, for the fifth year in a row, the staff of Future Perfect will venture its best estimations of what major news events will or won’t take place in 2024. It was either the Nobel Prize-winning physicist Niels Bohr or Hall of Fame New York Yankees catcher Yogi Berra (or, quite possibly, neither of them) who coined the phrase: “Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future.”
